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本文试图把中日关系在不同时期中的转变放在中美日大国博弈的动态框架下进行梳理，以大国战略制定为基本出发点，以内政与外交连接的理论框架为基础进行分析。本文主要关注国际关系中敌友转换的五个动态因素，即国家利益、力量对比变化、盟友关系、领导人决策、内政外交互动五种变量。文中选择近两个世纪以来三国之间互动中具有方向性的重大事件作为节点，总结为八个转折点。之后对中美博弈下的中日关系进行了分析。前事不忘，后事之师。审视中美日在过去两个世纪的互动对我们今天研究中日关系仍然具有重大的借鉴和启示意义。
Abstract：This article analyzes the changing dynamics of Sino-Japan relations at various periods under the framework of the ChinaUS-Japan triangle. Based on the perspectives of great power strategies, it applied the theoretical approach of internal-external linkage.It pays close attention to the five factors of the shift between friends and enemies in international relations, including national interests,power distribution, alliance system, decision of policymakers, and domestic international interactions. It examines the trilateral relations between China, the United States, and Japan, and divided the past nearly two centuries into eight conjunctures. The paper then depicts the current Sino-Japanese relations in the backgrounds of Sino-US rivalry. By looking back history, we can learn a great deal in understanding today's Sino-Japan relations.
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(1)丘吉尔的这句话往往被认为是他的首创，而且广泛流传。但据考证，最早的原文出自第三代巴麦尊子爵亨利·坦普尔在1848年一次演说。参见：UK Parliament, Treaty of Adrianople-Charges Against Viscount Palmerston, https://api.parliament.uk/historichansard/commons/1848/feb/23/treaty-of-adrianople-charges-against.
(2)可参考笔者对中美日大国博弈分析的两本书：赵全胜.大国政治与外交[M].北京：世界知识出版社，2009；赵全胜.中美日大国战略比较研究[M].台北：台湾五南出版社，2019.
(1)关于对中国国家利益优先顺位变化的具体论述，参见：Quansheng Zhao. Interpreting Chinese Foreign Policy[M].London:Oxford University Press, 1996.
(2)关于日本军国主义以及殖民主义的理论发源，参见：内務省警保局保安課.国家改造論策集[M].東京：国立国会図書館，1935.
(3)关于权势转移理论的相关分析，参见：Steve Chan. China, the US and the Power-Transition Theory:A Critique[M].Abingdon:Routledge, 2007.
(1)“竞争对手”的界定最早出现于2017年特朗普总统上任后的第一个国家安全战略报告中（National Security Strategy of the United States of America），并且他在2018年的国情咨文演讲中也明确使用了“对手”一词（Rival）。参见：The White House. National Security Strategy of the United States of America[EB/OL]. Washington D.C.:The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf; The White House, President Donald J. Trump's State of the Union Address[EB/OL].Washington D.C.:The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address/.
(2)对日本国内政治对其外交政策影响的分析，参见Quansheng Zhao. Japanese Policymaking-The Politics behind Politics:Informal Mechanisms and the Making of China Policy[M]. New York:Oxford University Press/Praeger,1993；赵全胜.从生丝问题上的保护主义政策看当代日本政治[J].日本问题,1987(3):15-24.
(1)有关东亚的历史发展和与美国的互动，参见Warren Cohen. East Asia at the Center[M]. Columbia University Press. 2000.
(2)对广岛和长崎的两次原子弹袭击不仅促使日本投降，也成为战后美日之间一个微妙而敏感的历史问题。
(1)有关田中角荣访华经过，参见：大下英治.田中真纪子[M].东方出版社，2003.
(1)有关在美国政策制定圈里“三驾马车”的论述，参见：Quansheng Zhao."Troika"and Foreign Policy—the Shift of U.S. Strategy towards East Asia[J]. European Journal of East Asian Studies, 15, 2016(1):5-33.
(2)“G2”的概念最早可以追溯到布热津斯基在2009年《金融时报》上的一篇文章《一个能改变世界的两国集团》（The Group of Two that Could Change the World），参见：https://www.ft.com/content/d99369b8-e178-11dd-afa0-0000779fd2actowards East Asia.
(1)这些国家都是中美博弈争夺的对象，有的已经“选边站”了，例如澳大利亚，有的还在观望，例如韩国。有关韩国的分析，参见：Scott Snyder. South Korea at the Crossroads:Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers[M]. New York:Columbia University Press. 2018.
(1)有关日本外交政策辩论，见赵全胜.日本外交政策辩论和大国博弈中的中日关系[J].日本学刊，2016(1):70-89.
(2)相关内容参见：孫崎享.アメリカに溃された政治家たち[M].東京：小学館，2012.
(1)参阅:RCEP正式生效，将带来怎样的变化？[OL].(2022-01-17).https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J3sPK1fJjlaPzJoXUGBikg.
(2)笔者在这方面做了一些初步的尝试，参见:赵全胜.谈谈美国的日本问题研究[J].日本问题，1986(2):48-53；赵全胜.日本外交政策研究[M].台湾,五南出版社，2015.
基本信息:
DOI：10.16496/j.cnki.rbyj.2022.01.001
中图分类号:D81;D822.331.3
引用信息:
[1]赵全胜.中美日大国博弈框架下的中日关系——兼论国际关系中的敌友转换[J].日本研究,2022,No.180(01):1-15.DOI:10.16496/j.cnki.rbyj.2022.01.001.
2022-03-20
2022-03-20